تحلیل سیاست خارجی امارات متحده در قبال ایران در چارچوب نظری حصار استراتژیک

امارات متحده عربی از زمان تأسیس در 1971 ، همواره سیاست حفاظ استراتژیک و گسترش تجارت و دیپلماسی گسترده، در کنار حفظ روابط با ایران و اتحاد با عربستان سعودی و آمریکا، همراه با توسعه توانایی‌های نظامی و امنیتی خود را در دستور کار قرار داده است.اما پس از وقایع 2011 در خاورمیانه این کشور نوعی استراتژی توازن را در روابط خود با ایران در پیش گرفت. سؤال اصلی این است که سیاست خارجی امارات متحده در قبال ایران چیست؟ پژوهش با روش توصیفی-تحلیلی از منابع کتابخانه‌ای گردآوری‌شده و مطالعه بر اساس چارچوب نظری حصار استراتژیک است. یافته مطالعه این است که حصار استراتژیک امارات متحده عربی در قبال ایران نیازمند به حداکثر رساندن بازده سیاسی و اقتصادی از همکاری با ایران و کاهش دامنه خطرات امنیت ملی بدون قطع روابط پیگیر و سودمند با سایر قدرت¬های منطقه¬ای و جهانی است. از همین رو، سیاست خارجی امارات متحده عربی در قبال ایران شامل موازنه نرم و سخت بوده است.

Analysis of the UAE foreign policy towards Iran in the theoretical framework of the strategic fence

Dr. Mohsen Rostami - Dr. Mohammad Reza Mohammadi - Dr. Ehsan Ranaei

Abstract

Since its founding in 1971, the UAE has pursued a policy of strategic protection and the expansion of extensive trade and diplomacy, along with maintaining relations with Iran and alliances with Saudi Arabia and the United States, as well as developing its military and security capabilities. But after the events of 2011 in the Middle East, the country adopted a kind of balance strategy in its relations with Iran. The main question is what is the UAE foreign policy towards Iran? The research is a descriptive-analytical method collected from library resources and the study is based on the theoretical framework of the strategic fence. The study finds that the UAE's strategic fence vis-.-Vis Iran requires maximizing the political and economic benefits of cooperating with Iran and reducing the scope of national security risks without severing consistent and beneficial relations with other regional and global powers. Therefore, the UAE's foreign policy towards Iran has included a soft and hard balance

Keywords: Iran, UAE, Strategic protection, Hard balance, Soft balance

منابع

Al-Mashat, A.-M. (2008), “Politics of constructive engagement: the foreign policy of the United Arab Emirates”, in Korany, B. and Dessouki, A.E. (Eds), The Foreign Policies of Arab States: The Challenge of Globalization, American University in Cairo Press, Cairo.

Al-Rasheed, M., et al. (2015), “Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy: loss without gain?”, in Young (Ed.) The New Politics of Intervention of Gulf Arab States, LSE Middle East Centre, London, Collected Papers, Vol. 1.

Bergman Ronen and Hubbard Ben "Israel Announces Partnership With U.A.E., Which Throws Cold Water On It", New Yourk Times, June 25, 2020, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/world/middleeast/israel-united-arab-emirates-coronavirus.html

Bmi, B.M. (2015), “Political risk analysis – the end of soft diplomacy”, available at: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/REPS-09-2019-0124/full/html

Boon, H.T. (2016), “The hedging prong in India’s evolving China strategy”, Journal of Contemporary China

CIA World Factbook,2018 available at: https://www.perlego.com/book/957409/the-cia-world-factbook-20182019-pdf

Collier, D. (2011), “Understanding process tracing”, Political Science and Politics, Vol. 44 No. 4.

Davidson, C.M. (2009), “Dubai and the United Arab Emirates: security threats”, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 36 No. 3, p. 437.

DeLozier, E. (2019), UAE Drawdown May Isolate Saudi Arabia in Yemen. POLICY WATCH 3148, The Washington, DC Institute, policy analysis, available at: www.washingtoninstitute.org/policyanalysis/ view/uae-drawdown-in-yemen-may-isolate-saudi-arabia

Dorsey, J.M. (2019), The UAE Withdraws fromYemen, BESA Center Perspectives. available at: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/uae-yemen-withdrawal/

Drysdel, Alysdeyr & ,Blake,GerRard. H (1990); Middle East and North Africa geopolitics, Translated to Persian by: Dorreh Mirheydar, Political and International Studies Office of foreign affairs ministry,Tehran

El-Dessouki, A. (2017), “UAE foreign policy in transition”, FEPS Journal, Vol. 18 No.2.

El-Dessouki, A. (2018), “The internal and external roles of Iraqi popular mobilization forces”, African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, Vol. 11 No. 10.

England, A. and Kerr, S. (2019), “US sanctions put chill on Iranian trade with UAE”, Financial Times, available at: https://www.ft.com/content/bbe3c99a-aee9-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2

Erdbrink Thomas,"A Tiny Island Is Where Iran Makes a Stand", New Yourk Times, April 30, 2012, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/01/world/middleeast/dispute-over-island-of-abu-musa-unites-iran.html

Fattah, Zeinab, “Risk of Iran Conflict Forces U.S. Gulf Ally to Rethink Policy”, Bloomberg, August 1, 2019, Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-31/iran-crisis-forces-u-a-e-rethink-of-its-regional-entanglements

Foroohar Kambiz, "Dubai Helps Iran Evade Sanctions as Smugglers Ignore U.S. Laws",Feb 06, 2019, Bloomberg, Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-01-25/dubai-helps-iran-evade-sanctions-as-smugglers-ignore-u-s-laws

Friedman Brandon,"Beyond Fraternity: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)", Foein Policy Reasearch Institue, 1 Oct 2016, Available at: https://www.fpri.org/article/2016/10/beyond-fraternity-kingdom-saudi-arabia-united-arab-emirates-uae/

FRS (Foundation pour la rechrche Strategique) (2019), “Update on trade relations between UAE/Iran and Qatar/Iran”, April, available at:

Gaurdian, "Saudi Arabia urges US attack on Iran to stop nuclear programme", Sun 28 Nov 2010, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/nov/28/us-embassy-cables-saudis-iran

Gause, F.G. (2010), “Balancing what? Threat perception and alliance choice in the gulf”, Security Studies, Vol. 13 No. 2.

Geopolitics and International. Boundaries, Research Center, University of

George, A.L. and Bennett, A. (2004), Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, MIT Press, London, Cambridge.

Gindarsah, I. (2019), “Strategic hedging in Indonesia’s defense diplomacy”, Defense and Security Analysis, Vol. 23 No. 4, pp. 181-185.

Goh, E. (2016), “Southeast Asian strategies toward the great powers: still hedging after all these years?”, The Asan Forum, Vol. 7 No. 5, Retrieved from Washington: East-West Center, available at: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.554.1497&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Guzansky, Y. (2015), “The foreign-policy tools of small powers: strategic hedging in the Persian Gulf”, Middle East Policy, Vol. XXII No. 1, p. 120.

Harab, I.K. (2019), “Why the United Arab Emirates is abandoning Saudi Arabia in Yemen”, Retrieved from foreign policy, available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/01/why-the-united-arab-emirates-is-abandoning-saudi-arabia-in-yemen/

Hernandez, M. (2019), “US, UAE enter new defense cooperation pact”, Retrieved from Anadolu Agency, available at: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-uae-enter-new-defense-cooperation-pact/1492622

Ibish, H. (2017), The UAE’s Evolving National Security Strategy, The Arab Gulf States Institute, Washington, DC, available at: https://agsiw.org/uaes-evolving-national-security-strategy/

Kahwaji, R. and Khan, S. (2014), “Success of the UAE defense strategy: achievements and outlook. Institute for near east and Gulf military analysis/INEGMA”, available at: www.inegma.com/idownloads/reports/NationalDay2014/blast/National (accessed 22 June 2019).

Katzman, K. (2018), “The United Arab Emirates (UAE): issues for U.S. policy”, Congressional Research Service (RS21852), available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS21852.pdf (accessed 12 July 2019).

Katzman, K. (2019), The United Arab Emirates (UAE): Issues for US policy, Congressional Research Service (accessedMay 2019).

Kirkpatrick, D.D. (2019), “The most powerful Arab ruler isn’t M.B.S. It’s M.B.Z”, The New York Times, June 2, 2019, available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/02/world/middleeast/crown-prince-mohammed-bin-zayed.html

Koga, K. (2017), “The concept of hedging revisited: the case of Japan’s foreign policy strategy in East Asia’s power shift”, International Studies Review.

March Nick, "Iran's actions over Abu Musa and Tunb islands tell us everything about its regional designs", The National, May 29, 2019, Available at: https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/iran-s-actions-over-abu-musa-and-tunb-islands-tell-us-everything-about-its-regional-designs-1.867708

Mason, R. (2018), “Breaking the mold of small state classification? The broadening influence of United Arab Emirates foreign policy through effective military and bandwagoning strategies”, Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, Vol. 24 No. 1, pp. 96-97.

Mearsheimer (1998) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.K.: Norton,Princeton, N.J. Princeton

Medeiros, E.S. (2005-06), “Strategic hedging and the future of Asia pacific stability”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 29 No. 1, pp. 147-157.

Mojtahedzadeh, Pirouz; lran’s Role in the Strait of Hormouz 1970-1990,

Newton Creede, "Mueller probe: Who is George Nader, convicted paedophile?", Aljazera, 6 Apr 2018, Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/04/06/mueller-probe-who-is-george-nader-convicted-paedophile/

Obeid, N.A. (2004), The United Arab Emirates Policy: Theory and Practice, University Institution for Studies and Publication, Beirut.

Porter, Gareth (2010). "Documents Show NYT and Washington Post Shilling for US Government on Iran Missile 'Threat' — Wikileaks Exposes Complicity of the Press" Archived 2010-12-04 at the Wayback Machine. CounterPunch. Retrieved 12 December 2010.

Ragab, E. (2017), “Beyond money and diplomacy: regional policies of Saudi Arabia and UAE after the Arab spring”, The International Spectator, Vol. 52 No. 2, pp. 40-42.

Ramani Samuel, "Israel Is Strengthening Its Ties With The Gulf Monarchies", Sep 13, 2017, huffpost, Available at: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/why-israel-is-strengthening_b_11946660

Reuters (2018), “UAE reopens Syria embassy in boost for Assad”, available at: www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-emirates/uae-reopens-syria-embassy-a-boost-for-assad-idUSKCN1OQ0QV (accessed 5 December 2019).

Rugh, Andrea B. (2007), The political culture of leadership in the United Arab Emates, New York, N.Y: Palgrave Macmillan.

Sadjadpour, K. (2011), The BATTLE oF DUBAI: The United Arab Emirates and the US-Iran Cold War, Middle East, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pp. 7-9.

Safavi, Saed Hamze,(2016) “United Arab Emarate” , Islamic Country Collection, Published by IIWFS & Jahad Daneshgahi [In Persian]

Salman, M. and Geeraerts, G. (2015), “Strategic hedging and China’s economic policy in the Middle east”, China Report, Vol. 51 No. 2, pp. 102-105.

Samuel Ramani, "Russia and the UAE: An Ideational Partnership", 25 April 2020, Middle East Policy Available at: https://mepc.org/journal/russia-and-uae-ideational-partnership

Sherwood, L. (2016), “Small states’ strategic hedging for security and influence”, Retrieved from Trends Research and Advisory, available at: https://trendsresearch.org/insight/small-states-strategic-hedging-for-security-and-influence/

Staff john, “Israel and UAE Fly Together”, The Tower, 04.11.19, Available at: http://www.thetower.org/7237-israel-and-uae-fly-together-in-joint-aerial-exercise-in-greece/

Steff, R. and Khoo, N. (2014), “Hard balancing in the age of American unipolarity: the Russian response to US ballistic missile defense during the Bush administration (2001-2008)”, Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 37 No. 2, pp. 223-225.

Tessman, B.F. (2012), “System structure and state strategy: adding hedging to the menu”, Security Studies, Vol. 21 No. 2, pp. 167-169.

Trofimov Yaroslav, "America’s Mideast Allies Want to Sit Out Iranian-U.S. Confrontation", Jan. 7, 2020, Wall Street Journal, Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-mideast-allies-brace-for-blowback-from-iranian-generals-killing-11578436178

Vakil, S. (2018), “Iran and the GCC hedging”, Pragmatism and Opportunism, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House.

Vicunõa, R.L. (2015), “Catalan paradiplomacy, secessionism and state sovereignty”, in University, L., (Ed.) The Effects of the 2006 Statute of Autonomy and the Artur Mas Government on Catalan Paradiplomacy, Faculty of social and behavioural sciences, Institute of political science.

World Development Indicators: Freshwater, "United Arab Emarate", 2019, Available at: http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/3.5

Young, K.E. (2015), “Foreign policy analysis of the Gulf Cooperation Council: breaking black boxes and explaining new interventions”, in The New Politics of Intervention of Gulf Arab States, LSE Middle East Centre, London, Vol. 1.